9/19/24 | 4:15pm | E51-149
Sunil Chopra
IBM Professor of Operations Management and Information Systems
Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management
Abstract: Problem definition. We document a permanent change in the US fast-food consumer demand after the COVID-19 pandemic. In short, after a big pandemic slump, visits to drive-through stores almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but visits to non-drive-through stores stayed permanently suppressed. Methodology/Results. We use store-visit data between 2018 and 2022 from McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Dunkin’ Donuts, accounting for about 10% of all US fast-food stores. Comparing December 2019 to December 2022, average monthly visits to drive-through stores changed by a moderate −4.43% (CI: [−6.46%, −2.40%]). Meanwhile, non-drive-through-store visits changed by a massive −48.14% post-pandemic (CI:[−52.33%, −44.17%]). Consistent with drive-through usage being the operating mechanism, this differential recovery pattern was driven by a 9.36% increase in short-duration visits at drive-through stores (CI: [7.15%, 11.55%]). These results’ magnitudes survive a more thorough difference-in-difference analysis as well as matching on store observables, and their statistical significance survives placebo inference. For perspective, the effects we document are analogous to a migration of 25% of all Starbucks’ customers and 50% of its total revenue from non-drive-through stores to drive-through stores.
Bio: Sunil Chopra is the IBM Distinguished Professor of Operations Management. He was also Interim Dean of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University from 2009-2010. From 2006 – 2009, he served as Senior Associate Dean: Curriculum and Teaching. He became a faculty member of the school in 1989. Previously he was an Assistant Professor at the Stern School of Business Administration at New York University. He has a PhD in Operations Research from SUNY Stony Brook. Professor Chopra’s research and teaching interests are in Operations Management, Logistics and Distribution Management, design of communication networks and design of distribution networks. He has co-authored the books Managing Business Process Flows and Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operation.
Both books are published by Prentice Hall and are used at several of the top business schools to teach Operations Management and Supply Chain Management respectively. The Supply Chain Management book was awarded the best book of the year for 2002 by the Institute of Industrial Engineers (IIE). Professor Chopra has won several teaching awards at Kellogg. He has been Departmental Editor for the journals Management Science and an Associate Editor for the Decision Sciences Journal, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management and Operations Research. His recent research has focused on risk management in supply chains. He has also studied distribution systems in a variety of companies trying to identify market, manufacturing, and product characteristics that drive the structure of a supply chain. He has consulted for a variety of firms.