3/14/24 | 4:15pm | E51-376

Margret Bjarnasdottir

Associate Professor
UMD

Abstract: The main focus of the talk is how analytical approaches using noisy secondary data can be used to map illegal psychostimulant (cocaine and methamphetamine) trafficking networks in the US. We use price and purity data from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE) dataset. We then adopt a two-step analytical approach: we formulate the data aggregation problem as an optimization problem to temporally match data in different states to analyze co-movement, then construct an inferred network of connected states and examine its properties. We find, first, that the inferred cocaine network created from the optimally aggregated dataset explains 46% of the anecdotal evidence, compared to 28.4% for an over-aggregated and 14.5% for an under-aggregated dataset. Second, our network reveals a number of phenomena, some aligning with what is known and some previously unobserved. Our findings show that an optimally aggregated dataset can provide a more accurate picture of an illicit drug network than can suboptimally aggregated data. As time allows, we will discuss other ongoing work on illicit supply chains.

Bio: Dr. Bjarndóttir is an Associate Professor of Management Science and Statistics at Robert H. Smith School of Business. Dr. Bjarnadóttir’s research focuses on data-informed decision-making, combining traditional operations research approaches with machine learning. In addition to the main focus of her work, which is health care, she has applied analytical models to contexts in demographic pay gaps, finance, sports and most recently, to illicit supply chains. Her work has been published in many of the leading journals (e.g. OR and POM) and has been covered by outlets such as HBR, Forbes, BBC, HR magazine and others. She teaches data analytics and has received multiple teaching awards including being named the best MBA professor by Poets & Quants. She holds multiple editorial board positions, but her focus right now is on two special issues on diversity equity and inclusion, at POM and Informs Transactions of Education. Dr. Bjarnadóttir holds a B.Sc. degree in Mechanical and Industrial Engineering from the University of Iceland and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Massachusetts Institute of Technology.