3/10/22 | 4:15pm | E25-111

Vahideh Manshadi

Associate Professor of Operations Management
Yale

Abstract: We study the allocative challenges that governmental and nonprofit organizations face when tasked with equitable and efficient rationing of a social good among agents whose needs (demands) realize sequentially and are possibly correlated. As one example, early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Emergency Management Agency faced overwhelming, temporally scattered, a priori uncertain, and correlated demands for medical supplies from different states. In such contexts, social planners aim to maximize the minimum fill rate across sequentially arriving agents, where each agent's fill rate is determined by an irrevocable, one-time allocation. For an arbitrarily correlated sequence of demands, we establish upper bounds on the expected minimum fill rate (ex-post fairness) and the minimum expected fill rate (ex-ante fairness) achievable by any policy. Our upper bounds are parameterized by the number of agents and the expected demand-to-supply ratio, yet we design a simple adaptive policy called projected proportional allocation (PPA) that simultaneously achieves matching lower bounds for both objectives (ex-post and ex-ante fairness), for any set of parameters. Our PPA policy is transparent and easy to implement, as it does not rely on distributional information beyond the first conditional moments. Despite its simplicity, we demonstrate that the PPA policy provides significant improvement over the canonical class of non-adaptive target-fill-rate policies. We complement our theoretical developments with a numerical study motivated by the rationing of COVID-19 medical supplies based on a standard SEIR modeling approach that is commonly used to forecast pandemic trajectories. In such a setting, our PPA policy significantly outperforms its theoretical guarantee as well as the optimal target-fill-rate policy.

Bio: Vahideh Manshadi is an Associate Professor of Operations at Yale School of Management. She is also affiliated with the Yale Institute for Network Science, the Department of Statistics and Data Science, and the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics. Her current research focuses on the operation of online and matching platforms in both the private and public sectors. Her research has been recognized by multiple awards at paper competitions across various INFORMS communities, including Public Sector OR, Auctions and Market Design, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. Professor Manshadi serves on the editorial boards of Management Science, Operations Research, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. She received her Ph.D. in electrical engineering at Stanford University, where she also received MS degrees in statistics and electrical engineering. Before joining Yale, she was a postdoctoral scholar at the MIT Operations Research Center.